With November market data in and December's numbers just around the corner, there's a growing sense of optimism for 2024. We at Cool Murphy Real Estate are super excited for what's to come.
The recent trend in the market shows promising signs. Open houses are drawing significant interest, and there's been an uptick in mortgage applications. This activity is likely a result of seasonal patterns, amplified by the recent drop in interest rates.
Moreover, experts are predicting up to three rate decreases by the end of 2024. This anticipation has led many potential buyers to adopt a 'wait and see' approach, hoping to capitalize on these future drops.
All is not what it seems
However, this strategy overlooks a crucial aspect of real estate dynamics. Unlike online auctions or price alerts for travel, Real Real products, and Snoop Doggy Dog, the real estate market doesn't operate on the same principle of 'drop it till it's hot.'
Many buyers are comforted by the projection of falling interest rates and an increase in inventory, but this waiting game is not without its risks. In fact, in certain areas of New Orleans, prices are gradually rising.
So what may look like bad news bears for sellers, is actually super misleading for what's to come.
The bad
Let's start with what would appear to be bad news for sellers. Competition is growing with inventory expanding towards pre-pandemic levels. This meant a 12% year-over-year increase in new listings in November.
This surge has brought the total inventory up by more than 27.6% compared to last year-- and it's worth noting that there was a 16% decline in closed sales in November year-over-year.
The ugly
Also, homes are also staying on the market for longer periods, with the average home in Orleans Parish now listed for 85 days, a 63% increase from last year.
All of this adds up to seller anxiety and buyers with a false sense of security.
The good
But here's where the super good news for homeowners and a warning alarm for buyers is sounded. Despite the above trends, there are super positive indicators for sellers.
Pending sales have risen by 10% year-over-year, and the median home price has increased by 2.2%, bringing the median value in Orleans Parish to $332k. This has sent the home affordability index plummeting by 7.5% year-over-year.
The prediction
So while more homes hit the market, and stay there longer, it hasn't necessarily sent home prices lower. Our prediction? Buyers with a false sense of what's to come will continue watching interest rates go down and fail to notice affordability going down like a Ke$ha track. We're calling timber.
Large groups of buyers will become aware all at once flooding open houses, and multiple offer situations will become the norm once again.
In the meantime, patient, strategic sellers will get solid prices for their homes with a smart go-to-market plan and a super-savvy realtor at their side.
The conclusion
The net-net? While we have not yet reached a decisive tipping point favoring sellers, the market is showing signs that patient sellers may soon see more favorable conditions. Savvy buyers are recognizing that now is an opportune time to explore the market. Both will benefit from the aid of a super agent by their side. And that's where we come in.
If you're interested in a more detailed analysis specific to your zipcode or neighborhood, please don't hesitate to reach out. We can provide a customized report to give you a clearer picture of the local market dynamics.
Looking to get a solid idea of what your home should list for OR looking to get started on your buying journey now? Book a quick, fun, free time to chat with us at coolmurphy.com.
Voted Neighborhood Favorite by Nextdoor, Team Cool Murphy is a top-producing, licensed real estate team based in New Orleans, brokered by Cool Murphy, LLC.
Celebrated for her next-level creative approach to real estate, Elisa Cool Murphy is an award-winning, top-performing agent in New Orleans and the founder and leader of Cool Murphy, LLC.
Contact Her -
email: cool@coolmurphy.com
Facebook: @homeinneworleans
IG: @coolmurphynola
YouTube: @coolmurphynola
phone: 504-321-3194
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